The week was a bit mixed with US equites on the rise again, Canadian equites volatile but with little week over week change, and bond yields rising again. Gold recovered a bit from some earlier losses and was over $4,000 per oz. as I write this.
| Index | Close Oct 23rd 2025 | Close Oct. 30th 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,741 | 6,849 |
| TSX60 | 30,186 | 30,213 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.09% | 3.14% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.01% | 4.09% |
| USD/CAD | $1.39864 | $1.39855 |
| Brent Crude | $65.89 | $64.67 |
| Gold | $4,109 | $4,018 |
| Bitcoin | $109,999 | $107,064 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
It was a busy week for central bankers. Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve dropped their overnight rates by 25 basis points. The European Central Bank (ECB) opted to hold rates steady. While markets welcomed the rate cuts in North America, they were less enthusiastic about indications from both the Fed and BoC that this may be the last cut of the year. In Canada, the Bank said, “the Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.” The U.S. Federal Reserve also ended its bond-buying program (quantitative tightening). All three central banks remain data-dependent in their decision-making processes.
It was also a busy week in Asia, with meetings of both the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Prime Minister Carney will be making the rounds, leading Canada’s efforts to expand and diversify trade. He is expected to meet with China’s Xi Jinping during the trip.
Donald Trump met with Xi and claimed the meeting was a “12 out of 10.” More neutral observers described the outcome as an uneasy truce in the U.S.–China trade war. China agreed to pause its restrictions on the export of critical minerals and clamp down on the trafficking of fentanyl precursor chemicals. In return, the U.S. lowered some of the tariffs it had imposed on Chinese goods. While Trump was effusive in his post-meeting comments, Xi Jinping was more circumspect, saying it was a good start.
The federal government will table its budget next week (Nov. 4) in the House of Commons. While details remain under wraps, larger deficits are expected as capital spending, support for workers impacted by tariffs, and higher defence commitments all make claims on the public purse—despite an anticipated reduction in the federal civil service. Accounting for deficits will change, with capital spending (e.g., infrastructure) being separated from operating deficits. The change is legitimate, but what qualifies as a capital expenditure may be open to interpretation. RBC has their preview here.
This week’s edition comes to you from Brussels, where Hil and I are seeing old friends and getting acclimatized to fall/winter before heading home this weekend. On that note, we’ll leave you with this from Simon & Garfunkel…
Have a great weekend!
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
