It was another mixed week on the markets. Positive momentum earlier gave way to selling as investors survey the damage done by the US Government shutdown and valuations in the AI sector. Joining in the risk-off momentum was Bitcoin which traded below $100,000. The bright spots were the Loonie and gold, both gaining a bit of ground.
| Index | Close Nov 6th 2025 | Close Nov 13th 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,740 | 6,757 |
| TSX60 | 29,952 | 30,254 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.12% | 3.19% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.09% | 4.13% |
| USD/CAD | $1.41319 | $1.40352 |
| Brent Crude | $63.45 | $62.98 |
| Gold | $3,979 | $4,177 |
| Bitcoin | $100,811 | $98,444 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
The lead story this week was the end of the US government shutdown. The record 43-day shutdown resulted in federal employees going unpaid, major disruptions to air travel, and supports for low-income families not being delivered. We may never know the exact toll the shutdown took on the US economy as the data gatherers and analysts were also off the job. It also means that the US Fed will be flying blind without the data.
Here at home, PM Carney announced the second tranche of major projects that will receive federal government support. The 7 projects represent $56 billion in new investment and are expected to support 68,000 jobs. This builds on the first tranche announced in September. The projects are focused on electricity generation & transmission, LNG, and mining. The success of these projects will depend in no small measure on the private sector stepping up to provide most of the capital.
Canada’s job creation in October surprised to the upside with 67,000 net new jobs created. The unemployment rate dropped from 7.1% to 6.9%. Looking a bit closer, most of the new jobs were part-time positions. The private sector did most of the hiring, but construction was the outlier with losses of 15,000 jobs. The resilience of the labour market may give the Bank of Canada reason to delay further rate cuts.
Canada’s Foreign Minister, Anita Anand, hosted her G-7 counterparts in Niagara this week. Trade was not at the top of the agenda, rather the focus was on security writ large. Russia will face more sanctions, Ukraine was supported, while Gaza, Haiti, freedom of navigation, and critical minerals all made the final communique. Foreign Ministers from non- G-7 countries Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia were also in attendance.
In North America we “celebrate” Black Friday by opening our wallets. In China the equivalent is Singles Day. This sales event was started by giant on-line marketer Alibaba. This year, economists are paying closer attention to both Singles Day in China and Black Friday in the US to judge the health of the consumer. Although sales in China were up 14.6% over last year, that paled beside the 26.6% growth in 2024 sales. Shoppers were more value conscious this year and focused on needs rather than wants. The promotions for Black Friday (Nov. 28th) have already started.
China has been making changes to its educational system. To improve the mental health of elementary and secondary school students, the country is limiting screen time, reducing homework, and mandating 2 hours of physical activity every day. They are also restricting the number of hours a teacher can work and the amount of after school tutoring. Now, will the tiger moms buy into this considering China’s very competitive education system?
Sam, Grant, and gang are still travelling this week, so we’ll sign off with another South American classic to help them on their journey… Enjoy
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
