It was a short but relatively quiet week on the markets. Canadian markets were closed Wednesday and US markets will be closed on Friday. Equities were slightly positive on the week while yields rose a bit pushing bond prices down slightly. Oil was also down while gold and Bitcoin had a decent week.
| Index | Close June 25th 2026 | Close July 2nd 2026 |
| S&P500 | 7,366 | 7,469 |
| TSX60 | 34,850 | 34,967 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.38% | 3.45% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.40% | 4.49% |
| USD/CAD | $1.41939 | $1.41828 |
| Brent Crude | $72.22 | $71.59 |
| Gold | $4,027 | $4,120 |
| Bitcoin | $59,840 | $61,430 |
Source: Trading Economics
Canada’s economy rebounded in April with GDP growing by 0.5%. This was higher than StatsCan’s estimates of 0.4%. While the energy sector let the rebound, better results were spread across14 of the 20 industries tracked by StatsCan. Early estimates for May are for 0.1% GDP growth. The numbers aren’t stellar but put paid (for now) of any recession talk.
As expected, the US Administration has opted to not extend the CUSMA trade pact between the US, Canada, and Mexico. The trade pact remains in place but will be subject to annual reviews. If the US had agreed to an extension (which both Canada and Mexico had agreed to) the pact would have remained in place for 16 years. The annual review process will inject a certain level of uncertainty to intra-continental trade. For now, there are no changes to our largely tariff free trade. The exceptions being steel, aluminum, and autos.
Bank of Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a speech warning of global imbalances to the Chambre de Commerce France-Canada last Thursday. In his speech he pointed to 3 factors that contribute to these imbalances – a low savings rate in the US, low consumption in China, and weak investment in Europe. The fragility of the system has increased as global finance has become faster, more complex, and more inter-connected with new, less regulated players and technologies playing a bigger role. He called for greater co-operation in 3 priority areas:
- Keeping trade & investment open
- Creating more attractive investment opportunities outside the US
- Improving transparency so financial system risks are easier to see and manage.
Prime Minister Carney & BC Premier David Eby unveiled a new Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement in Vancouver this week. The agreement encompasses 4 LNG projects, the Red Chris Mine expansion, the North Coast Power Transmission Line, infrastructure upgrades to the Port of Vancouver & Roberts Bank, George Massey Tunnel Replacement, and upgrades to the Ports of Prince Rupert and Stewart. The agreement keeps in place the North Coast tanker ban. It also says that BC and the Federal Government will work together to create a National Carbon Credit Framework. The tanker ban kills a northern oil pipeline from Alberta but leaves open a southern route.
This next item is an example of the changing relationship of Canada’s First Nations and the Canadian economy. The Williams Treaties First Nations announced a $700 million investment in the Darlington New Nuclear Project in Ontario. The investment will support the development of Canada’s first grid-scale small modular reactor (SMR). The investment is backstopped by provincial and federal loan guarantees.
Canada is about to get its first Chinese EVs. Geely owned Lotus will begin deliveries of its Eletre SUV and Emeya sedan this July. Other carmakers including BYD and Chery are currently testing the market and driving conditions as they prepare to enter the market as well. Meanwhile BYD is expected to purchase an existing car plant in Europe to expand its presence in the EU. They already have one plant in Hungary.
We celebrated Canada’s 159th birthday on Wednesday. While not perfect, we are truly blessed to live in one of the best countries in the world. The adversities we face today are daunting, but we are a nation that has battled adversity since its inception and won. We are, without a doubt, stronger and more prosperous together. Oh, and all that 51st State talk? Bryan Adams would like a word… Have a great weekend.
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
