With Russ’s power out from the storms on the Island, I (Sam) will be stepping in this week for the Week that Was. Equities posted modest gains this week, with the S&P 500 touching a record midweek before easing and small caps outperforming. Bond yields climbed as the Fed’s recent cut was accompanied by cautious guidance, pushing the 10-year near 4.19%. Oil slid toward $56 on oversupply concerns, while the Canadian dollar strengthened to its best level since July driven by stronger Canadian employment and steady wage growth. Gold edged higher as cooling CPI and geopolitical tensions supported safe-haven demand. With less than three weeks left in 2025, tax-loss harvesting is in full swing, setting the stage for potential year-end window dressing and a Santa Claus rally.
| Index | Close Dec 11th 2025 | Close Dec 18th 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,918 | 6,789 |
| TSX60 | 31,661 | 31,441 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.43% | 3.44% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.15% | 4.15% |
| USD/CAD | $1.37670 | $1.3786 |
| Brent Crude | $61.57 | $60.03 |
| Gold | $4,278 | $4,328 |
| Bitcoin | $93,441 | $88,407 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
U.S. stocks got a boost after November CPI eased to 2.7% year over year, the slowest pace since early 2021, lifting both equities and Treasuries. Many analysts warned the data may be skewed by recent government shutdown effects, so December’s report in January will be key. Labor trends looked mixed: initial jobless claims dropped by 13,000 to 224,000, reversing last week’s holiday-driven spike, while continuing claims rose, pointing to fewer layoffs but slower rehiring. Holiday spending held up but was concentrated in essentials, with food and staples outpacing discretionary items as retailers extended promotions beyond Black Friday and Cyber Week.
Across the Atlantic, The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75% in a narrow 5 to 4 votes, marking its fourth cut this year and signaling a cautious, data-driven approach for 2026 as inflation eased to 3.2% and growth stalled. In contrast, the European Central Bank held steady at 2%, projecting inflation near target and highlighting the policy divergence between the United Kingdom and the euro area.
Closer to home Vanity Fair published an in-depth profile of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, based on 11 extensive interviews, portraying an unusually candid look behind the scenes. In the piece, Wiles describes Trump as having an “alcoholic’s personality,” characterizes Vice President J.D. Vance as a “conspiracy theorist for a decade,” and labels OMB Director Russell Vought as a “right‑wing absolute zealot”.
Energy markets remained under pressure despite geopolitical headlines. Brent and WTI hovered near multi-year lows as robust non-OPEC+ supply and expectations of a surplus into early 2026 overshadowed demand concerns. Traders noted that renewed tension in Eastern Europe added a modest risk premium, preventing an even steeper decline and highlighting how fragile the balance between oversupply and geopolitics remains.
That tension escalated further this week. Russia launched large-scale drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, plunging regions into darkness, while Ukraine retaliated with deep-strike attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including refinery fires in Krasnodar and hits on Caspian oil platforms. These strikes aim to disrupt supply chains critical to Russia’s war effort, even as Berlin hosts high stakes talks among Ukrainian, U.S., and European envoys seeking a path toward a ceasefire and economic security guarantees.
Crypto markets mirrored the broader risk-on/risk-off mood. Bitcoin traded in a tight range between the high $80Ks and low $90Ks, as spot ETF flows swung between modest inflows and outflows, muting any sustained rally even after the Fed’s December move. Analysts remain divided: major banks project long-term targets of $100K–$170K for 2026, but near-term sentiment is cautious, with outflows favoring short tactical trades over strong trending positions.
We’ll wrap up with some holiday cheer for our song of the week. Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season and a Happy New Year! Thank you for following along with us throughout 2025, we’re excited for the year ahead. As you head into the holidays, we’ll leave you with a timeless classic to set the mood.
Sam Colby
Associate