It was a mixed week with no sign of reduced volatility in the equity markets. The S&P500 gave up early week gains to finish lower while the TSX did make some gains. The bond market had a decent week with yields on the 10 yr. bonds declining. A quick note that we mark the week from Thursday to Thursday to meet our publishing schedule.
| Index | Close Feb 5th 2026 | Close Feb 12th 2026 |
| S&P500 | 6,973 | 6,833 |
| TSX60 | 31,962 | 32,484 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.40% | 3.29% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.20% | 4.10% |
| USD/CAD | $1.36796 | $1.36102 |
| Brent Crude | $67.45 | $67.60 |
| Gold | $4,801 | $4,921 |
| Bitcoin | $62,680 | $66,259 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
There were no major announcements from central banks this week, so we’ll start off with the election in Japan. PM Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide victory in last weekend’s vote. An avowed conservative whose role model is Margaret Thatcher, PM Takaichi has caused heartburn amongst bond traders in the past. She is in favour of a more stimulative fiscal policy, a mixture of lower taxes and higher government spending. With a super-majority in the Diet (parliament) there will be few constraints on her achieving her policy aims. Except for the bond vigilantes, who are for the moment taking a wait and see attitude.
Canada’s employment level dropped by 25,000 jobs in January. However, the unemployment rate also dropped by 30-bps to 6.5% as people exited the workforce. Ontario suffered the highest job losses as the manufacturing sector struggled. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland-Labrador all posted gains. Other sectors that saw losses were educational services and public administration. This reflects a precipitous drop in international students and government belt-tightening.
US inflation numbers will come out after we publish, but they have the potential to move the markets. A reading below 2.5% could give the Fed room to cut short term rates. However, the Fed has a dual mandate to manage inflation and support the labour market. The latest jobs report showed that employers added 130,000 jobs in January. That higher-than-expected number could give the Fed reason to keep rates steady.
But and there is always a but, the job creation numbers for 2025 have been revised downward, by a lot. Total job creation for the year was slashed to just 181,000 jobs. An 898,000 (seasonally adjusted) drop from initial reports. You can read a more detailed analysis of the revisions from Barry Ritholtz here.
We can’t let a week go by without some new eruption from the Whitehouse. This week it was Donald Trump threatening to not allow the Gordie Howe bridge between Ontario and Michigan to open. Theis came, apparently, after the owners of the existing Ambassador Bridge (Windsor – Detroit) lobbied US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The new bridge is jointly owned by Canada and the State of Michigan and was financed by the Canadian Government.
Vancouver has put in a bid to be the headquarters of the new multi-national Defence, Security, and Resilience Bank (DSRB). The Bank is a multilateral institution focused on financing defence, security and resilience projects for Nato and allied countries. In Canada the DBRS has the support of all of the Big 6 banks. There are several countries bidding for the head office. Within Canada, Vancouver is up against Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax.
Monday is Family Day in Canada, which this year has special meaning as we join Tumbler Ridge in their grief after this week’s horrific event. There are no words to describe the pain felt by families that have suffered the loss of a child in these circumstances. We’ll leave you with this piece from Sarah McLachlan….
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
