Despite a week full of geo-political headlines, equity & bond markets both put in a decent week. Gold put in a new high while oil spiked on events in and threats to Iran. So far 2026 is proving to be more “interesting” then 2025.
| Index | Close Jan 8th 2026 | Close Jan 15th 2026 |
| S&P500 | 6,922 | 6,982 |
| TSX60 | 32,379 | 33,030 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.40% | 3.37% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.18% | 4.18% |
| USD/CAD | $1.38636 | $1.38945 |
| Brent Crude | $61.99 | $63.86 |
| Gold | $4,478 | $4,611 |
| Bitcoin | $91,037 | $95,642 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
In what should have been a quiet week for central banks, the US Federal Reserve managed to make headlines, with a little bit of help from the Department of Justice (DOJ). The DOJ has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Alleged transgression includes his testimony to Congress last spring and the cost overruns on the Federal Reserves building renovation. In a video statement, Powell hit back at the administration, accusing it of undermining the Fed’s independence. Central bank independence is a cornerstone of the financial world. There are numerous examples of bad outcomes when this core principle is undermined. RBC discusses the downside in this piece.
In more mundane news, US inflation held steady at 2.7% in January. Core inflation which strips out food and energy was a bit lower at 2.6%. These numbers need to be taken with a pinch of salt as the government shutdown in the fall prevented the collection of some key data. The number is probably not low enough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates for now.
Donald Trump says you are paying too high of an interest rate on your credit card. In a speech to the Detroit Economic Club, he called for a 1 year 10% cap on credit card rates. While most of us would welcome lower rates, the unintended consequences would not be pretty. While credit card balances are a source of income for banks, they are also a source of risk. A 10% rate is too low to keep lending to riskier consumers with weak credit histories. It could cut them off from a source of credit.
Oil spiked earlier this week as Iranians took to the streets to protest the current despotic regime. The revolt has been spurred by a collapsing currency, runaway inflation, mismanagement of the county’s infrastructure, and corruption at the highest levels of the government. Thousands have been killed as the regime struggles to put the revolt down. The US has placed a 25% tariff on all counties doing business with Iran and threatened military action. Iran is still one of the world’s top oil producers at over 3 million barrels per day. Most of its production is sold to China.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is on the road again. After a stop in Prince Rupert to meet coastal First Nations, he flew to Beijing to talk trade. So far, the trade mission has been a success. Canada has said it will drop tariffs on a limited (49,000) Chinese EVs to 6.1% from the current 100% duty. In return China will lower tariffs on a wide range of agricultural and seafood products. His next stop is Qatar to talk about investment opportunities in Canada. The China deal is not without risks though. We do not know what the reaction from the Whitehouse will be and it is a bit of a trade off between the support of our agricultural sector and the auto sector.
We have been spending the last week babysitting grandkids in Toronto (-13 and snow) for the past week. It gives you a different repertoire for musical choices. So, we’ll leave you with Sophie’s choice this morning…. Enjoy
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
