Markets continued their summer rally this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq once again closing at record highs, driven by strong momentum in tech and optimism around a more accommodative Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones also posted gains, though it lagged behind its peers. Bitcoin extended its rally, while oil prices remained firm amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bond yields edged lower as investors recalibrated expectations for rate cuts later this year.
| Index | Close July 3rd 2025 | Close July 10th 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,226.78 | 6,263.26 |
| TSX60 | 26,889 | 26,945 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.36% | 3.37% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.26% | 4.33% |
| USD/CAD | $1.3634 | $1.3627 |
| Brent Crude | $68.26 | $68.64 |
| Gold | $3,325 | $3,321 |
| Bitcoin | $109,445 | $110,885 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
Nvidia made history this week, becoming the first company to surpass a $4 trillion market cap, overtaking both Apple and Microsoft. The surge was fueled by relentless demand for its AI chips, particularly the H100 and Blackwell architectures, which power data centers and large language models for OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Nvidia now commands an estimated 90% share of the AI chip market, cementing its role as the backbone of the global AI infrastructure, with Microsoft and Meta also seeing gains as they aim to also become leaders in the agentic AI.
Speaking of AI, the UN’s “AI for Good” Global Summit convened in Geneva this week, drawing thousands of participants from governments, tech firms, and academia. The event featured over 200 demonstrations and sessions focused on AI governance, ethics, and innovation, with a strong emphasis on aligning AI development with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. A central theme was the rapid rise of agentic AI—systems capable of autonomous reasoning and action—which experts warned are evolving faster than regulatory frameworks can keep pace. Examples on display included AI-driven disaster response tools, brain-computer interfaces, and autonomous agents that can manage logistics or healthcare triage with minimal human input.
Bitcoin surged past $113,000, hitting a new all-time high and extending its 2025 rally. The move was fueled by strong institutional demand, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing $4.5 billion in inflows in July alone. Ethereum and other altcoins joined the rally—Ethereum rose nearly 6% to $2,816, while tokens like Solana, XRP, and newer names like PI and Hyper posted double-digit gains. Corporate adoption is also accelerating: KULR Technology Group and K Wave Media both expanded their Bitcoin treasuries this week, citing long-term strategic value. With momentum building and macro uncertainty still high, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a digital safe haven by both retail and institutional investors.
President Trump confirmed that new tariffs will take effect on August 1, targeting 22 countries including Japan, South Korea, Brazil, and several BRICS and Southeast Asian nations. The proposed duties range from 20% to 50%, depending on the country, and are aimed at forcing new trade negotiations under what the administration calls “reciprocal terms.” While some nations have secured partial deals, others face steep penalties. So far, markets have reacted calmly, but analysts warn that a breakdown in talks could trigger renewed volatility and strain global supply chains. If tariffs are fully implemented without resolution, investors may shift toward defensive sectors and safe-haven assets, potentially reversing recent equity gains.
Here at home The Conference Board of Canada projects a modest 1.5% GDP growth for 2025 but warns that economic momentum is weakening. Trade uncertainty and a cooling housing market are key factors dampening the outlook. Business investment remains sluggish, reflecting ongoing caution among firms. However, consumer sentiment has shown slight improvement, offering a bit of support to domestic demand. Overall, the economy faces headwinds that could limit growth in the coming months.
Looking ahead, markets will be in sharp focus as earnings season kicks off next week, with major banks and tech giants set to report. These results are expected to offer a clearer snapshot of corporate health amid persistent economic pressures. Early earnings from smaller firms like Theratechnologies and Electra Battery Materials have been mixed, hinting at broader challenges that may define the season—particularly the effects of inflation and tariffs on profit margins. With input costs still elevated and global trade dynamics evolving, analysts are closely watching how companies are managing expenses and sustaining profitability. These early signals could play a key role in shaping investor sentiment in the weeks to come.
Another thing to watch is the upcoming inflation data in both the U.S. and Canada, which could significantly influence expectations for interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed a cautious and measured tone, with most policymakers preferring to wait for more clarity on inflation before cutting rates. Renewed tariff threats from the Trump administration have added to inflation concerns, prompting investors to reassess the timing and likelihood of rate cuts as geopolitical risks begin to re-enter the inflation narrative.
Some good news out of the devastating events in Texas: a 26-year-old Coast Guard rescue swimmer led a heroic mission that saved 165 people—including children and seniors—using nothing but a rope, a raft, and sheer determination. Amid the tragedy, it is a quiet reminder that goodness endures. We’ll leave you with a Texas native’s voice to start off your weekend …
Sam Colby
Associate
