It was a muted week on the markets with both equity and bond markets showing little change week over week. The war between Israel and Iran has pushed the price of oil up, but certainly not to panic levels. A G-7 that ended with no drama, the US showing restraint in its approach to the Israel / Iran conflict (despite the bombast from Donald Trump) and continued talks rather than tariffs on trade have the market somewhat sanguine. US markets were closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth public holiday commemorating the emancipation of slaves.
| Index | Close June 12th 2025 | Close June 19th 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,039 | 5,925 |
| TSX60 | 26,616 | 26,506 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.33% | 3.33% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.37% | 4.40% |
| USD/CAD | $1.36054 | $1.36971 |
| Brent Crude | $70.20 | $77.24 |
| Gold | $3,386 | $3,369 |
| Bitcoin | $105,872 | $104,433 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
The US Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady for now. In post announcement remarks, Jay Powell noted the labour market was still strong and the central bank had raised its inflation forecast while lowering its economic outlook. Expectations are for 2 more rate cuts later this year. Donald Trump was not pleased though, wanting more aggressive rate cuts. He referred to Powell as “too late Powell” and called for a massive 2.5% reduction. There are reasons politicians don’t run central banks.
Meanwhile the Swiss (SNB) and Norwegian central banks did cut rates by 25-bps each. The SNB reduced its overnight rate to zero but held off a return to negative rates. The Swiss Franc has appreciated sharply, and part of the rationale is to bring it back down. Norway’s move was the first cut in 5 years and caught some market participants off guard. It also sent the Krone lower. The Bank of England (BoE) decided to hold things steady for now. Uncertainty and a rise in energy prices offset by a slowing economy and softening labour market all contributed to the decision.
Here at home, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the Bank may find it hard to cut rates again this year. In what has become a common refrain, he referred to uncertainty and the impact of potential tariffs on inflation. In his remarks he also pointed to the importance for corporate Canada to diversify its markets.
The G-7 meetings in Kananaskis came and went without a lot of drama. While Donald Trump left early to deal with the unfolding Israel / Iran war, the Leaders did manage to find consensus on a wide range of issues. Some of the bigger announcements included the re-instatement of diplomatic relations between Canada & India, a Canada / Japan partnership in defence, intelligence sharing, & energy, and an ambitious 30-day timeline to strike a Canada / US agreement on tariffs.
The energy partnership between Canada and Japan was especially timely. Kitimat based LNG Canada is expected to start production this weekend. When in full production the facility is expected to produce 14 million metric tonnes per annum. There are another 4 LNG facilities either under construction or in the permitting process in BC – Cedar LNG, Ksi Lisims, Tilbury, and Woodfibre.
After 4 or 5 years of high growth, Canada’s population growth has almost stalled. The first quarter of 2025 saw only 20,107 new residents arrive. That was the smallest number since Q3 of 2020 with the pandemic in full swing. The biggest drop has been in temporary residents (international students & temporary foreign workers). Immigration accounted for all the population growth in the country. In the 1st quarter we had 5,628 more deaths than births. This may explain the recent downtrend in rent costs in Canada.
We’ll close off with this piece from Nina Simone, fitting for Emancipation Day (Juneteenth)…. Have a great weekend
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
