Equity markets continue to defy fears, putting in a positive performance in both Canada and the US. Bond yields climbed marginally (prices down) in both countries but without any sense of panic. Oil exhibited more volatility, hitting $120 (Brent) before falling back. More on that below.
| Index | Close Apr 23rd 2026 | Close Apr 30th 2026 |
| S&P500 | 7,101 | 7,213 |
| TSX60 | 33,705 | 33,964 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.49% | 3.55% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.33% | 4.38% |
| USD/CAD | $1.37081 | $1.35832 |
| Brent Crude | $106.18 | $111.15 |
| Gold | $4,690 | $4,618 |
| Bitcoin | $77,753 | $76,353 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
It was a busy week for central banks. The Bank of Canada (BoC), US Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England (BoE) all held rate setting meetings this week. All opted to hold rates steady. The common theme was uncertainty caused by the Iran War, inflationary pressures from rising energy costs, and economic slowing due to energy shortages. The BoC expects headline inflation to rise to 3% in April. The 3 banks remain committed to a 2% inflation rate with the BoC and BoE being a bit more hawkish in their rate outlook.
This was also Jerome Powells last rate decision as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His term ends on May 15th buy he has opted to stay on as a Governor “for a time”. His term as Governor expires in 2028. The move is unusual; most Fed Chairs leave completely after their term. It may complicate things for incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
In North America, we are a bit insulated from the looming energy crunch. But for Asia and much of Europe, the potential for oil shortages is real. So far supplies have been adequate as oil inventories at sea have made their way to their destinations. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now into its 9th week most of those deliveries have been made. Were the Strait to open tomorrow, it would still take the loaded ships 20-30 days to reach Europe and 5 to 7 weeks to Singapore. There would then be another lag while empty vessels made their ponderous way to the Persian Gulf to take on the next cargo. If you are a subscriber to The Economist, you can watch their latest Insider episode which explores the ramifications here.
High fuel prices aren’t just an economic problem. They are a serious political problem. With mid-term elections looming, there is consternation panic in the Whitehouse about how to mitigate the crisis. According to research firm Veda Partners the Trump administration is looking at 4 options:
– Releasing supplies from the Strategic Reserve, which will have a modest effect on prices and is limited by the volumes in storage
-Getting the states to reduce or suspend fuel taxes
-Suspending the federal fuel taxes
– Restricting the export of refined petroleum products
Some of the remedies are easier than other to implement. The tax relief will not help budget deficits already in the trillions. As for the export restrictions, they are opposed by the oil producing companies and will only see the light of day if gasoline prices stay above $5 per gallon for an extended period.
The oil crisis of the 1970’s demonstrated solidarity amongst OPEC members. This crisis is showing the cracks. The United Arab Emirates announced they will leave the Cartel effect May 1. The UAE has been chafing under OPEC production quotas for a long time and will produce to full capacity once the region returns to normal.
The Carney government delivered its Spring Economic Update this week. Reviews are mixed as the shows a lower deficit than expected for 2025-6 but higher spending going forward. The spending measures include new programs to train skilled trades workers and a cut in CPP premiums for workers and employers.
The most notable item in the update was the creation of a “Canadian Sovereign Wealth Fund”. Being a creation of government and politicians, it has both critics and fans. Unlike the SWFs of places like Norway or Kuwait, this fund will be seeded by borrowing by the federal government rather than the saving of surpluses. The point of the fund is to make equity investments in major projects or investments alongside the private sector. Like all these initiatives, the concept may be sound, but governance and execution are crucial.
Canada has also won the bid to be the headquarters for the new Multinational Defence Bank. The Bank will finance defence, security, and intelligence projects for NATO members and allied nations. Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver are all bidding to be the host cities. The Bank is expected to generate about 3,500 new jobs.
Less than 2 hours. That was the time it took 2 runners to complete the London Marathon this past week. Kenyan Sabastian Sawe made history with his 1:59:30 time. Close on his heels was Yomif Kejelcha with a 1:59:41 time.
On that note we’ll close off with this familiar piece from the 1980s…. Enjoy
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
