There was a better tone in both equity and bond markets this week. Yields are easing their way down again which has boosted bond prices and given equity markets a bit of a breather. Oil is cheaper again while the Loonie has held its own post election. Gold pulled back while bitcoin is up on the week.
| Index | Close Apr. 25th 2025 | Close May 1st 2025 |
| S&P500 | 5,496 | 5,599 |
| TSX60 | 24,728 | 24,796 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.21% | 3.13% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.31% | 4.22% |
| USD/CAD | $1.38548 | $1.38414 |
| Brent Crude | $66.45 | $61.85 |
| Gold | $3,340 | $3,231 |
| Bitcoin | $93,567 | $96,774 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
This Tuesday I attended the Private Wealth Management conference in Vancouver hosted by the Markets Group. I have attended this conference for several years and moderated several panels. It is a good opportunity to network with my peers in the investment industry and compare notes. This year the mood was one of caution. There were no harbingers of doom, but no one was willing to take on more risk. One theme that did stand out was to underweight US equities in favour of developed markets (Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada…..). The arguments for doing so ranged from policy uncertainty to over valuation and mean reversion.
We went to the polls on Monday and elected another minority Liberal government. Two leaders lost their own seats in the House of Commons. One stepped down immediately triggering a leadership race. The other vowed to stay on and continue to build on their party’s momentum. While the result was not a surprise, it was a masterclass in strategic voting. Like all elections there was several issues on the electorate’s mind but one dominated, who was best to deal with Donald Trump. Now the hard work begins.
With the election in the rear-view mirror, PM Carney and Donald Trump have already spoken. An in-person meeting could happen within a week according to Trump. This hasn’t been confirmed by the Canadian side yet. Carney’s first order of business will be to build a new cabinet. I remember when a candidate (Gordon Gibson Jr.) for the leadership of a provincial party was asked if he would have the other aspirants in his cabinet. He replied, “I’ll build my cabinet when I see what’s in the lumber yard.”
The US and Ukraine have signed a deal to develop Ukraine’s mineral wealth. The deal is a far cry from the onerous terms first proposed by the Trump administration. While not a Marshall Plan, it does bring some security guarantees and capital to for rebuilding to the beleaguered country.
GDP in the US shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. This was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022. The drop was caused in part by a surge in imports ahead of the tariffs. The value of imports is deducted from GDP, so there is a lot of noise in these numbers.
I am writing this on a sunny May 1st afternoon (and recovering from playing 3 rugby games in 4 days). May Day has a wide variety of traditions around it from dancing around the Maypole to worker’s uprisings. We’ll leave you with L’Internationale, which celebrates the latter…. Enjoy
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
