Oil down, pretty much everything else up. Oil pulled back on news hope the US and Iran were close to a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of renewed shipments put a bid back under equity and bond markets. The Loonie pulled back a bit with the price of oil. There is nothing definitive yet, but the week proves that hope springs eternal.
| Index | Close Apr 30th 2026 | Close May 7th 2026 |
| S&P500 | 7,213 | 7,333 |
| TSX60 | 33,964 | 33,857 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.55% | 3.53% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.38% | 4.39% |
| USD/CAD | $1.35832 | $1.36510 |
| Brent Crude | $111.15 | $102.23 |
| Gold | $4,618 | $4,702 |
| Bitcoin | $76,343 | $79,942 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem testified before the House of Commons Finance Committee this week. There were no surprises in the testimony. The biggest take-away was the possibility of higher interest rates if oil prices stay elevated. While headline inflation (CPI) has risen to 2.4% from 1.8%, higher costs are not widespread yet and are largely limited to energy and food.
The most recent Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Ivey School of business is out and it shows a still robust Canadian economy. Any reading over 50 is considered to show an expanding economy. The index rose from 49.7 in March to 57.7 in April. On a cautionary note, the prices index (one of the sub-indices) also rose indicating some inflationary pressures building in the system.
Canada posted it first trade surplus in six months. March saw exports exceeding imports by $1.8 billion, up from a $5.1 billion deficit in February. The swing was mostly a result of higher prices for oil and gold rather than higher volumes. Exports to the US were up 8.5% but it was exports to countries other than the US that led the parade. Overseas sales rose 10.2% in February followed by a 9.1% increase in March. Canada has signed or initiated 20 new trade agreements since March 2025 with 3 more major deals expected to conclude by year end, Mercosur, ASEAN, and India.
Airbus’ Canadian operations just got a big boost. The company has landed an order from Malaysia’s Air Asia for 150 A220-300 regional jets. The planes are made in Quebec and were originally designed by Bombardier as the C-series. Cost overruns forced Bombardier to sell a controlling interest in the project to Airbus in 2018 for $1.
Canada’s National Research Council will be converting its Canadian Photonics Fabrication Centre (CPFC) into a commercial entity. The government will retain a stake but has already attracted interest from Asian and European investors. The CFPF is only one of three independent facilities in the world that manufacture compound semi-conductors, light based components that help move information around data centres. Industry Minister Melanie Joly say the company will retain majority Canadian ownership.
Donald Trump’s tariffs just received another major blow. The US Court of International Trade ruled the Section 122 tariffs were illegal. These tariffs were brought in to replace the original tariffs that were enacted at the start of Trump’s term and struck down by the courts. The Section 122 tariffs were a blanket 10% across the board levy. (Canada and Mexico were exempted under CUSMA.) The ruling will be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Donald Trump is expected to meet with Xi Jinping next week in Beijing. The top priority for Beijing is Taiwan and its claim of one China. The US is more interested in China applying pressure on Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. To be fair, that is also in China’s best interests but Taiwan remains its primary interest.
Elon Musk is preparing SpaceX for an IPO this year. The company is expected to be valued at $2 trillion with big investor demand. There is a caveat here that investors need to be aware of. Elon Musk and his family will retain control of the company by owning a share class that entitles them to 10 votes for every one of the new “B” shares being sold to the public. That and several other measures ensure that Musk will continue to have tight control. In the end investors probably won’t care, having faith in Musk’s ability.
It’s May, so we’ll sign off with this from Blue Rodeo…. Enjoy
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
