It was a mixed week on the markets. Bond yields have declines (prices up), the S&P has not recovered from a sharp sell-off late last week, while the TSX made fresh all-time highs (along with gold). Oil was down as well with West Texas Intermediate trading below $60.
| Index | Close Oct 9th 2025 | Close Oct. 16th 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,739 | 6,622 |
| TSX60 | 30,270 | 30,459 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.21% | 3.08% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.15% | 3.98% |
| USD/CAD | $1.40244 | $1.40504 |
| Brent Crude | $65.18 | $60.92 |
| Gold | $3,978 | $4,324 |
| Bitcoin | $121,061 | $107,835 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
Has the US / China trade war been re-ignited? Last week China announced restrictions on the export of critical minerals. The restrictions are in addition to restrictions imposed in April. In response, Donald Trump threatened a 100% tariff on imports from China. Both sides are playing hardball here and the markets swooned in response on Friday. US markets have recovered a bit on positive earnings, but risks remain especially for tech companies selling into China. The silver lining for Canada is that it may open a new market for our critical minerals as the US and others look for more secure supplies.
Stellantis announced it was moving production of one of Jeeps from Brampton Ont. To its Belvedere Assembly Plant in Illinois. The shift would move over 3,000 jobs from Canada to the US. In response, the Canadian government has threatened legal action. Both Canada and Ontario provided subsidies to Stellantis on the understanding that they would maintain and increase their Canadian footprint. Elbows up.
France’s Prime Minister has survived two confidence votes, providing some stability to a volatile political situation. PM Sebastion Lecornu had resigned earlier after failing to win the confidence of the National Assembly. He was asked to try again by President Macron. The cost was to roll back the proposed increase in retirement age and not force through the budget. This allowed him to garner enough support from the Socialists to form government.
Staying in Europe, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for a common European stock exchange to improve capital formation within the EU. The proposal was part of a wide rage of reforms he will take to Brussels next week. Smarter regulation, more competition, and innovation all featured in his package of proposals.
Canadian economist Peter Howitt was among a group of 3 economists awarded this year’s Nobel Prize for economics. Their research looked at the effect of innovation on economic growth and explored the concept of “creative destruction”. Congratulations Professor Howitt!!
The Federal Government will start automatically filing taxes for low-income Canadians next year. Every year several million people fail to file their taxes. The fall out is that many fail to get benefits they qualify for. Auto-filing is common in many other jurisdictions.
We celebrated Thanksgiving with a trip to Avignon which was the home of the Pope for a period in the 12th & 13th centuries. It is also the home of a very famous bridge that has done more to promote the town than any advertising campaign could have. No prizes for guessing this week’s song.
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
