It was another decent week for most asset classes with both Canadian and US equities in positive territory. In the bond market, yields have declined modestly (prices up). The outlier was oil which has been under pressure as OPEC+ contemplates more production increases. Gold hit a new record this week on the back of continued buying by central banks and retail investors.
| Index | Close Sept 25th 2025 | Close Oct. 2nd 2025 |
| S&P500 | 6,615 | 6,719 |
| TSX60 | 29,734 | 30,161 |
| Canada 10 yr. Bond Yield | 3.24% | 3.18% |
| US 10 yr. Treasury Yield | 4.18% | 4.09% |
| USD/CAD | $1.39231 | $1.39665 |
| Brent Crude | $69.56 | $64.32 |
| Gold | $3,751 | $3,855 |
| Bitcoin | $109,096 | $120,574 |
Source: Trading Economics & Factset
Political brinksmanship can be an ugly thing. This week has seen another example of it in the US where Congress has failed to pass a bill to fund continuing government operations. So far, the shutdown has curtailed some government operations and resulted in 40% of the workforce being furloughed. The administration has said they will make many of those lay-offs permanent if the impasse is not resolved. The markets have, for the moment, ignored the shutdown and dismissed it as noise. Past shutdowns have had little effect on the economic trajectory of the nation and expectations are this will be resolved.
GDP in Canada rose in the July after shrinking in the second quarter of 2025. Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas led the economy higher but were helped by manufacturing which recovered from a Q2 swoon. August is expected to show modest growth as well. Economists expect the positive performance will cause the Bank of Canada to pause any rate cuts for October but resume them later this year.
Canadian financier John Ruffolo wrote an interesting piece on Canada’s need for a Sovereign Wealth Fund in his sub-stack. The basis for his argument is that it would (if properly managed) reduce the need for foreign capital. The downside of course is the political interference and the fund being raided for short term political gain. (See Alberta’s Heritage Fund) Conversely, the fund can be used to provide long-term stable capital to key components of the Canadian economy. (See Norway’s Norge Bank)
Pipelines are back in the news this week. Despite a call from the Alberta government for a new oil pipeline to be built to BC’s north coast, no private-sector proponent has stepped forward for the project. The Alberta government has decided to be its own proponent and dedicated $14 million to prepare the groundwork for a proposal. BC is no stranger to pipeline politics and both the political and engineering challenges are significant. It is expected that any federal approval will be tied to emissions reduction in the oil patch. Here is this writer’s modest suggestion, turn your eyes east and build a pipeline to Churchill, where the federal government is proposing a major port development. Longer but no mountains to cross, less political angst, and it avoids a major earthquake zone.
In corporate news on-line gaming giant Electronic Arts is being bought by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund for $55 billion. The deal is a win for EA shareholders and a strategic asset for the Saudis. Closer to home, TD Bank announced a new strategic plan. The bank plans to cut $2.5 billion in expenses, automate more functions using AI enabled tools, and expand fee generating business lines in wealth management, insurance, & securities.
We lost Jane Goodall this week at the age of 91. The famed primatologist dedicated her life to saving the great apes and bringing awareness of their plight to the world. In lieu of a musical end to this week’s edition, I’ll leave you with this piece done on her life and achievements. Hers was a life well lived….
Russ Lazaruk, RIAC, CIWM, CIM, FCSI
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager
